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# Daily, Sunday 1 November
- URL: https://finformed.uk/week-ahead-2-november-2026/
- Published: 2026-11-01T02:02:30.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-01T02:19:31.000Z
- Author: Ja’Van Edwards
- Tags: Finformed Daily

Welcome to the first Finformed Daily. From tomorrow it lands at 07:00 every weekday: the one thing that matters, three numbers, one claim checked, and what to watch. Today, the week ahead.

The one thing

The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates on Thursday, from 3.75% to 4%. Markets expect it; it isn’t decided until the vote.

The reason is at the petrol pump. UK inflation rose to **3.5%** in September, from 3.1% in August. Petrol averaged 169.5p a litre, the highest since August 2022, and motor fuel prices were 29.8% higher than a year earlier. Oil is high largely because of the war, and attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

**The weekend twist.** Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told Al Jazeera this weekend that Tehran has a plan with Qatari mediators to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, if the US meets its conditions. Iran hasn’t said publicly what the conditions are, and Washington hasn’t responded publicly. Treat it as a claim, not a deal. But if it holds, oil could fall fast, and that would change the inflation story the Bank of England is reacting to.

| Brent crude$113.43+2.4% Friday | US 10-year yield4.93%−7bp on the week | Gold$3,898.90About a one-year low (Dec futures, Friday close) |
| ------------------------------ | ------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------- |

A war, high inflation and oil above $110, yet gold is at about a one-year low. Part 3 of our dollar series looks at who’s buying, and who’s selling.

Claim of the week

“Interest rates are coming down.”

**Not supported**

As things stand. The US Federal Reserve held at 3.75–4% on 28 October, and two of its 12 voters wanted a rise. Australia’s central bank is expected to raise on Tuesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday.

| What to watch · UK times |                                                                                                                                       |
| ------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Mon 15:00                | US factory survey (ISM manufacturing).                                                                                                |
| Tue 03:30                | Reserve Bank of Australia. A rise to 4.85% is expected.                                                                               |
| Tue                      | US midterm elections. Results overnight into Wednesday morning UK time.                                                               |
| Wed 10:00                | Eurozone inflation, first estimate. Forecast 4.0%.                                                                                    |
| Wed                      | US Treasury quarterly refunding: borrowing plans and buybacks. [Why it matters](https://finformed.uk/treasury-buybacks-claim-check/). |
| Thu 12:00                | **Bank of England decision.** A rise to 4.00% is expected.                                                                            |
| Fri 13:30                | US jobs report for October. Forecast about +63,000, unemployment 4.2%.                                                                |

US clocks go back today, so US data is back to 13:30 UK. Forecasts are market consensus, not certainties.

Tomorrow · 07:00

Finformed Daily, Monday 2 November

How oil opens after the Hormuz news, and what it means for Thursday.

Get the Daily

Finformed is independent research. Not financial advice. Spotted an error? Email connect@finformed.uk and we’ll correct it at the top of this piece, with the date.

Sources

1. ONS, *Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026*, 21 Oct 2026\. [www.ons.gov.uk](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/september2026?ref=finformed.uk)
2. Bank of England, *Bank Rate* (3.75%; next decision 5 November 2026). [www.bankofengland.co.uk](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate?ref=finformed.uk)
3. Federal Reserve, *FOMC statement*, 28 Oct 2026\. [www.federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm)
4. Al Jazeera, *Iran war live: Araghchi says talks under way on 2-day plan to reopen Hormuz*, 1 Nov 2026\. [www.aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/11/1/iran-war-live-araghchi-says-talks-under-way-on-2-day-plan-to-reopen-hormuz?ref=finformed.uk)
5. The National, *Attacks on ships transiting Hormuz in October highest since start of war*, 31 Oct 2026\. [thenationalnews.com](https://thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/31/live-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz?ref=finformed.uk)
6. CappNotes, *Closing Look, Friday 30 October 2026* (closing prices). [cappnotes.substack.com](https://cappnotes.substack.com/p/closing-look-friday-october-30-2026)
7. Yahoo Finance (Stocktwits), *Weekly Spread*, 31 Oct 2026\. [finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/stocktwits-weekly-spread-shaped-treasury-005438925.html?ref=finformed.uk)
8. Louis Velazquez, *Week ahead* (event times and forecasts). [www.louisvelazquez.com](https://www.louisvelazquez.com/week-ahead-elections-rate-decisions-and-jobs-take-center-stage/?ref=finformed.uk)