Claim checks
The record
Every claim we've checked, the verdict, and the source that settles it. When new data changes a verdict, we say so here, with the date and the reason.
Interest rates are coming down.
As of 31 October: none of the main central banks cut at their last decision. The Federal Reserve held at 3.75–4% on 28 October, and two of its 12 voters wanted a rise. Australia and the Bank of England are expected to raise rates this week.
The US Treasury doubled its bond buybacks to $4bn a quarter.
It at least doubled the cap on some long-dated buybacks, to $4bn or more. But that's per operation, not per quarter.
Treasury buybacks are money printing.
The Treasury pays with cash it holds or raises by selling other debt. Unlike the Fed, it can't create new money.
US interest costs now exceed defence spending.
Reports disagree on how it's measured. We're checking the Treasury's full-year figures before giving a verdict.
China's renminbi is replacing the dollar.
The renminbi holds 2.11% of world reserves. Only about a quarter of the money leaving the dollar went into it.
The dollar is collapsing as the world's reserve currency.
Its share has slid for 25 years, to 56.70%. A slow slide, not a collapse.
How we judge a claim
- Supported
- The evidence backs it.
- Partly supported
- Some of it holds; part doesn't, or it's overstated.
- Not supported
- The evidence points the other way.
- Unproven
- Not enough evidence yet, either way. We say what would settle it.
Live claims are about things that keep moving, like interest rates. The verdict holds as of the date shown. We re-check after the next event that could change it and log every re-check on the claim, so nothing is quietly rewritten.
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